Sales to Active Ratio
- Sales divided by total inventory, showing what percent sold.
- Average for the 1st ½ of 2019 was 16%. That puts the 1st half of the year smack dab in the middle of a balanced market.
- The 1st ½ year 5 yr average was 26%, and the 10 yr average was 18%. 2019 was slightly lower than the 10 yr average.
2019 1st ½ year sales # = 250.
- That’s the lowest 1st ½ year of sales in the past 5 years.
- That’s 35% lower than the 5 year average for 1st ½ year of sales, and 15% lower than the 10 year average.
- Noteworthy point: even though 2019 seems quite low compared to the 5 + 10 year averages, the last downward market we experienced, 2009 to 2013, every single 1st ½ year of sales in those years were lower than 2019 is so far.
- 2019 1st ½ yr inventory average = 250
- 2018 = 300 & 2017 = 200.
- 2019 is right between the 1st ½ year inventory averages for 2018 & 2017.
HPI Benchmark Price
- Basically this is the average price but slightly more accurate.
- Average HPI benchmark price for a detached home in the 1st ½ of 2019 was $940,000.
- 2018 = $1M & 2017 = $880,000.
- 2019 is right between the average HPI benchmark price for the 1st½ year of 2018 and 2017.
- Even though the sales # peaked in the Spring of 2016, prices kept going up until the Spring of 2018….interesting.
- We know we are in a down market, we just don’t know how long it will last for.
- Even though it feels like the market is abnormally slow, we’ve seen slower in the last downward cycle. It just feels really slow now because of the feeding frenzy we saw between 2015 and 2017.